NFL Draft Preview: Mock Hate!

The NFL Draft, my favorite non-sporting event, sporting event of the spring is mere hours away. I love the NFL Draft. It’s a 3 hour mash up of the NFL and college football, and a distraction from the slog of the NBA playoffs. More importantly, it ends “mock draft” season. It sentences “NFL draft experts” back into their parents metaphorical basement (it used to be the actual basement, but this mock draft thing has somehow become lucrative enough for these guys to move into their own houses, but make no mistake, they will always be basement dwellers).

Everyone has an NFL draft opinion.

Your grandmother posted a mock draft on Facebook yesterday. Your crazy uncle just called to ask you about your thoughts on seventh round steals. Hell, even you may have caught the sickness and spent 45 minutes putting together your own “mock draft” after having a few too many last Friday night.

First the bad news:

You’re all (mostly) wrong. Yes, all of you. No one has any idea what’s going to happen. There are a few picks (Kyler Murray to Arizona?) that are locks but after that, you, your crazy uncle, and your grandmother have no idea what’s about to happen.

Now the good news:

You’re wrong, but so is everyone else.

Yes, even those smarmy guys that come on TV and proffer their wildly inaccurate opinions on college and professional football like they are preaching the gospel. These people are terrible and you should stop watching them. You know just as much as they do and no one pays you to say dumb stuff (well, most of us don’t get paid to say dumb stuff, I do on occasion).

Let’s take Todd McShay as an example.

He makes his living talking about the NFL draft, so he must know what he’s talking about....right? In reality, ESPN decided that Kiper was getting old and they could grab a few more viewers if they had two people throwing poo against the wall instead of just one....enter Todd McShay, poo flinger extraordinaire.

The key for the entire NFL “mock draft” industry is short memories. It’s a little like recruiting in that way. You don’t know how a recruiting class ends up until 2 or 3 years down the road.

I remember at the end of the Spurrier era when The UofSC would “sign” several 4-star commitments on signing day, guys they knew were never going to make it into school, just so it looked like they were actually recruiting.

When the check came due 2 or 3 years down the road, it turned out that the recruiting they were doing on paper didn’t actually show up on the field. Spurrier abandoned ship midway through the season, and they lost at home to the Citadel.

The problem with recruiting gurus is they never have their home loss to the Citadel moment.

They are never exposed for the frauds that they are. Sure, every now and again someone will bring up the fact that Kiper bet his career on Jimmy Clausen and lost, but is still allowed to leave his crypt every spring to offer up more prattle, but people keep tuning into his segments.

In fact, I don’t blame ESPN for marching these guys out every year, because people are still tuning into the show. You can’t blame the carnival huckster for gluing some goat horns on a guy and calling him “the goat man” if people are willing to fork over a quarter to see the show.

People, I implore you, let this be your last mock draft season.

Get out of the house, enjoy the spring, turn off the squawking heads on ESPN. Life is short and you need to save up your TV time for the fall, when actual football is being played, and maybe an occasional Netflix or HBO Go binge. Don’t waste precious time on people as silly as Kiper and McShay. I guarantee you, no one on their death bed will ever say, “My one regret is not paying enough attention to Todd McShay’s mock draft when I had the opportunity.”

If you need more motivation to tune out, keep the following in mind.

McShay on Deshaun Watson:

“Right now it’s hard to give him a first round grade....and listen Clemson fans...I get it...fire off....uhm, he’s an awesome college player, he’a a phenomenal athlete, he’s really accurate, in I think, shorter throws, leading the receivers to yards after catch, he’s clutch, big time in big games, and I love his competitiveness, just like the it factor, his intelligence, and everything you look for at that position, he’s got it. I just worry because guys that aren’t consistent with their accuracy beyond 10 yards down the field, there’s not a great track record of having success in the NFL, because you know, they’ve got to be able to make those throws.

In his defense they (stuttering) they throw fewer balls down the field, especially in the intermediate zone, they throw a higher percentage of deep balls compared to other schools, but, uh, but intermediate throws, because a high focus of their offense is short throws...screens...and..and the precision they look for there and have guys run after the catch....and I...I just don’t see it. You know what, you can think I’m the biggest idiot in the world, and that’s fine. I’ve talked to three different scouts the last two weeks with grades on him that equate to 3rd, maybe a little bit later.....so listen...I like him a little bit more than most people do right now....in the scouting community, but I think he’s got to be in the right fit, he’s got to be developed properly, and I...I don’t think it would be a great situation for him to go in as a top 10 pick and have an organization counting on him to play right away...”

Let’s break this nonsense down.

Right now it’s hard to give him a first round grade....and listen Clemson fans...I get it...fire off..

Clemson fan here, prepared to fire off.

he’s an awesome college player, he’a a phenomenal athlete, he’s really accurate, in I think, shorter throws, leading to receivers to yards after catch, he’s clutch, big time in big games, and I love his competitiveness, just like the it factor, his intelligence, and everything you look for at that position, he’s got it.

Ok Todd, stop, just stop talking, you nailed it!

I just worry because guys that aren’t consistent with their accuracy beyond 10 yards down the field, there’s not a great track record of having success in the NFL, because you know, they’ve got to be able to make those throws.

Oh no, he kept talking, but this is a fair point...if you believe that Watson wasn’t accurate down the field in college (he was fine).

In his defense they (stuttering) they throw fewer balls down the field, especially in the intermediate zone, they throw a higher percentage of deep balls compared to other schools,

So Clemson throws fewer balls down the field, but also throws more deep balls, but the only thing that counts as “down the field” is apparently 10-15 yard passes.

but, uh, but intermediate throws, because a high focus of their offense is short throws...screens...and..and the precision they look for there and have guys run after the catch....and I...I just don’t see it.

I don’t know man, it was a while ago, but Mike Williams didn’t have 98 receptions for 1,361 yards and 11 touchdowns on screens and short throws. Throw in the fact that Jordan Leggett also had 46 catches 736 yards and 7 touchdowns and it just doesn’t seem like Clemson was screening teams to death, but I’m just a guy that watched every college game Watson played and never once remember thinking “man all we do is toss screen passes.”

You know what, you can think I’m the biggest idiot in the world, and that’s fine.

Thanks, but I don’t need your permission to make that assessment.

I’ve talked to three different scouts the last two weeks with grades on him that equate to 3rd, maybe a little bit later.....so listen...I like him a little bit more than most people do right now....in the scouting community

Come on now, he expects us to believe that if Watson made it to the third round in the draft, there were teams willing to pass on him because he didn’t have a 3rd round grade? That’s what he was trying to sell.

This, “I’m actually a big fan of Watson” schtick was gross.

If you don’t think he’s good, at least be man enough to say that and stick to your guns instead of trying to cool your hot take by saying other anonymous people you know have an even hotter take.

In high school, Todd also had a long term girlfriend that lived in Canada. You wouldn’t know her though, and she uhm, doesn’t come to visit, but she’s super hot, and she’s also a model, but wants to be a doctor.

I think he’s got to be in the right fit, he’s got to be developed properly.

This is trite word fluff.

Imagine someone saying the opposite of this, “he’ll be fine if he’s drafted by a team that won’t utilize his skill set or develop him.”

I don’t think it would be a great situation for him to go in as a top 10 pick and have an organization counting on him to play right away...”

How did that work out?

Watson took over the reigns from Tom Savage in the 1st game of his rookie season and started the next 6 games before a season ending ACL tear.

Season 1

Games 7 (1 off the bench, 6 starts)

YDS: 1699 (including a 400 yard performance against the Seahawks)

TD: 19

INT: 8

Rate: 103

Rushing: 269 yards on 36 attempts

Rushing TDs: 2

Record: 3-3 (as a stater)

Season 2

Games: 16

YDS: 4165

TDS: 26

INTS: 9

Rate: 103

Rushing: 551 yards on 99 carries

Rushing TDs: 5

Record: 11-5

Pro Bowl

In Summary

Enjoy the draft, but tune out the noise. These people are terrible.