It was a weekend of high quality matchups. Welcome to the STS Prediction Contest Week 3 Recap!
Week 3 Matchups
Actual score: 59-0 Clemson
My pick: 59-10 Clemson
Average Clemson Points Prediction (Mean): 50.56
Average SC State Points Prediction (Mean): 11.65
You guys, how did you ever survive scantron tests? Yet again someone selected the wrong team while entering in a final score favoring Clemson. I fixed it this time but I think going forward I’m going to have to let things stand because I can’t fix everyone’s mistakes.
Anyways, you saw the game. Domination by Clemson. I thought SC State might pick up some points on Clemson’s backups but nope, shutout city. I would have liked Dabo to keep the 1st stringers in there on offense until at least partway through the second quarter. If things had been clicking against Auburn and Troy I would have been okay with early substitutions, but the offense had been struggling. I would have liked them to play together for at least a full quarter, but hey, whatever, it worked. And, hot dang, I got the Clemson score exactly right! That makes me feel better about completely blowing the prediction for the FSU-Louisville game.
Actual score: 63-20 Lousiville
My pick: 38-35 FSU
Average FSU Points Prediction (Mean): 32.81
Average Louisville Prediction (Mean): 30.26
I originally picked FSU before learning of the Derwin James and Josh Sweat injury. Sweat apparently still played, but I’m sure he was limited. Given the chance, I definitely would have changed my pick to slightly favor Louisville. (I promise... check the previous Prediction post; I said so in the comments before the game!)
Even losing those two players though, I don’t think anyone could have predicted such an insane blowout.
Louisville really concerns me at this point because Clemson’s defense didn’t really play well against Auburn when they brought in the speedy John Franklin at QB to run the zone read. I think Lamar might be a bit better than John Franklin. Our DE depth and LBs concern me the most. Knowing what we’re going to be up against, I hope Venables can come up with a good plan (but first things first against GT).
I don’t have much to say about this game other than holy crap. It was a complete butt-kicking. FSU made a game out of it briefly (like, for 5 minutes) after being down early but Lamar just put them away. That guy has gotta be the front-runner for Heisman right now.
By the way, highest points score predicted for Louisville this week? 45 points. Shocking result.
Actual score: 35-32 Nebraska
My pick: 34-28 Nebraska
Average Oregon Points Prediction (Mean): 32.74
Average Nebraska Points Prediction (Mean): 29.00
Here I think most people went with the ranked team, but this Oregon team is not like the Oregon team of old with Chip Kelly. Stanford is clearly on top of a weak PAC-12 conference. Utah might have a shot at winning the Pac-12 South given how weak USC has looked.
I’m glad I chose this game for the contest rather than Alabama and Ole Miss. I want to try to avoid too many games where most participants are going to choose one team. The Alabama game may have been close, but I feel pretty confident that most of you would have chosen them.
Anyways, a nice upset by Nebraska. Maybe the Big Ten has some talent beyond Ohio State and Michigan. Speaking of the Big Ten...
Actual score: 36-28 Michigan State
My pick: 37-28 Notre Dame
Average Michigan State Prediction (Mean): 20.18
Average Notre Dame Prediction (Mean): 26.71
I didn’t have much faith in MSU. This is carry-over bias from the absolute beatdown they received in the playoffs last year (much like my Oklahoma bias). Oops. Well, at least my score prediction was almost spot-on... if the team names had been swapped.
So is Notre Dame just that weak or is MSU just that good? I think maybe it’s the former. Texas losing to Cal this weekend certainly doesn’t help Notre Dame.
Actual score: 45-24 Ohio State
My pick: 42-24 Ohio State
Average Ohio State Points Prediction (Mean): 36.24
Average Oklahoma Prediction (Mean): 26.19
I was surprised that Vegas only favored Ohio State by 2 points. I know that it was a home game for the Sooners, but really, have the Sooners looked that great this year? I’m also surprised that nearly 13% of participants chose the Sooners. C’mon folks!
This was a difficult week. The mean score this week was 17.66. For comparison, the mean scores for Weeks 2 and 1 were 23.53 and 22.18, respectively.
Here are the overall top scorers after the first three weeks:
And here are the top scorers for this third week:
You can access the full standings and results here.
The results are sorted alphabetically to make it easier for you to find yourself. The tabs at the bottom of the spreadsheet will navigate among the overall results and the results for each individual week.
As always, if you notice any scoring errors or have any other comments or questions, please feel free to let me know in the comments.