FanPost

Clemson's Offensive Line Isn't Very Good

We know the offensive line is playing poorly as shown by that sinking feeling on third and 1 and the need for a million wide receiver screens a game. Explaining why it is so bad comes down to three reasons: poor strength and conditioning, too few recruited, and poor talent recruited. We'll ignore coaching as a reason since I don't know enough about football to assess how Robbie Caldwell is doing with the talent he has, but reviewing the recruiting numbers will tell us how that is affecting performance. Below is a statistical overview of the OL, a summary by year showing number of recruits and average Star rating per Rivals, and a "where are they now" chart showing what we can expect next year, then an assessment of what needs to improve.

Don't be alarmed. That sinking feeling on short yardage situations is a normal, perfectly rational reaction based on repeated failure and misery. Clemson ranks 127 out of 128 in terms of Power Success (success running on third and fourth down with two yards or less to go). Adjusted line yards show Clemson isn't blocking effectively, ranking 99. The OL is doing a good job protecting the quarterback with a adjusted sack rank of 16, if only we had a quarterback who could pass the ball. Check out Football Outsiders for a glossary of terms and the source data.

Adj. LY Rk

Opp. Rate Rk

Power Success Rate Rk

Stuff Rate Rk

Adj Sack Rate Rk

Std. Downs Sack Rate Rk

Pass. Downs Sack Rate Rk

99

80

127

85

16

14

40

Ok, we're terrible at running the ball (surprise, surprise) but we're good at protecting a quarterback defensive backs politely request to pad their stats, suggesting just maybe we're seeing something these numbers weren't meant to measure. Defenses aren't afraid of Stoudt passing, so they're not going to pressure as much. They can just drop back and pick six.

The number of OL recruited aren't to blame for this year's performance, but will start coming into play next year and following. Here's the historical numbers:

Year

# Committed

Mean Stars

2010

4

3.0

2011

4

3.3

2012

5

3.2

2013

2

3.5

2014

2

3.0

The classes playing this year should be 2010-2012, which had healthy numbers. The lone four star in 2011, Eric MacLain, was recruited as a TE but transitioned to the OL. The fact he's not a starter this year isn't a good sign for future performance. The lone four star in 2012 is Isaiah Battle, who is at least playing. Other than that, the incoming talent has been pedestrian. Nothing special, but we would expect something better than what we're seeing. Here's a complete list of OL recruits along with what they are up to:

Year

Name

Stars

Note

2010

David Beasley

3

Starting Guard

2010

Gifford Timothy

3

Gave up football due to injuries

2010

Kalon Davis

3

Starting Tackle

2010

Reid Webster

3

Starting Guard

2011

Eric MacLain

4

Backup Guard

2011

Ryan Norton

3

Starting Center

2011

Shaq Anthony

3

Transferred

2011

Spencer Region

3

Backup Guard

2012

D.J. Reader

3

Backup Tackle

2012

Isaiah Battle

4

Starting Left Tackle

2012

Jay Guillermo

3

Injured Center

2012

Oliver Jones

3

Injured Tackle (Medical Redshirt)

2012

Patrick Destefano

3

Gave up football due to injuries

2013

Maverick Morris

3

Backup Tackle

2013

Tyrone Crowder

4

Backup Guard

2014

Justin Falcinelli

3

Redshirt Tackle

2014

Taylor Hearn

3

Redshirt Tackle

Tyrone Crowder and Isaiah Battle are the highest ranked OL recruits and they are playing. Imagine that. The overall numbers are ok at 3.4 per year, but subtract out Anthony, Timothy, and Destefano for an average of 2.8 and it shows why the line is so thin. There will be busts (MacLain and, so far, Region) and there will be additions (3 star, 2011 DE recruit, Joe Gore), but there needs to be a strong baseline of talent to withstand injuries, transfers, and failure. The fact a four star redshirt freshman is playing ahead of so many upper classmen shows that talent matters.

In terms of options for next year, we probably have Guillermo at center, Crowder at guard, Norton as a backup center, with MacLain, Gore, Region, Reader, Jones, Morris, and the redshirt freshman somewhere mixed in. Hopefully they take a giant leap forward over the course of the next year or we'll be stuck in maybe an even a worse position. Do not count on true freshmen playing even average. They need at least a year of a college strength and conditioning program, even Clemson's.

You pretty much knew this already, so check out the chart below for something interesting.

Year

Adj. LY Rk

Power Success Rk

Adj. Sack Rk

2005

6

89

27

2006

9

9

19

2007

21

56

84

2008

94

117

62

2009

35

112

18

2010

77

50

14

2011

67

69

42

2012

26

16

72

2013

21

31

60

2014

99

127

16

Mean

45.5

67.6

41.4

Std. Dev.

35.4

42.5

26.2

Power Success represents strength and conditioning more than any other category. If it is worse than the adjusted line yards and adjusted sack ranks, it means the strength and conditioning is worse than the talent level and coaching. The OL is in the 64 percentile for adjusted line yards and 67 percentile for adjusted sack rank yet 47 percentile for power success over a 10 year span. Read that again. On average, over the course of 10 years, Clemson has a below average power success rate. There realistically aren't that many teams contending to be ranked each year, let alone win a premier bowl. Coaches come and go. Talent comes and goes. Batson remains the same.

The staff needs to prioritize OL recruiting like it is for the 2015 incoming class, falling in the mid 60th percentile of performance is not acceptable. They also have to address problems with strength and conditioning. Yes, I mean, "must." This is a major problem that will prevent competing for a National Championship. I understand that Batson has been in his position for 18 years at Clemson and that you don't want to fire a guy like that. But, he's a director. He makes lots of money and has other options. He isn't someone working to put food on the table, but to buy a bigger boat for the lake house. You should fire a guy at his level who is holding back the program. But if you refuse to do so, if you can't bring yourself to do it, at least move him to a different position. Clemson is a big university with a huge athletic department. You can find a spot for him and he can move on if he doesn't like it. But the numbers are clear as day. Out of 10 years there have been 2 with good Power Success. It needs to be addressed.


These opinions are not necessarily those of the Proprietors of Shakin' The Southland.