We know the offensive line is playing poorly as shown by that sinking feeling on third and 1 and the need for a million wide receiver screens a game. Explaining why it is so bad comes down to three reasons: poor strength and conditioning, too few recruited, and poor talent recruited. We'll ignore coaching as a reason since I don't know enough about football to assess how Robbie Caldwell is doing with the talent he has, but reviewing the recruiting numbers will tell us how that is affecting performance. Below is a statistical overview of the OL, a summary by year showing number of recruits and average Star rating per Rivals, and a "where are they now" chart showing what we can expect next year, then an assessment of what needs to improve.
Don't be alarmed. That sinking feeling on short yardage situations is a normal, perfectly rational reaction based on repeated failure and misery. Clemson ranks 127 out of 128 in terms of Power Success (success running on third and fourth down with two yards or less to go). Adjusted line yards show Clemson isn't blocking effectively, ranking 99. The OL is doing a good job protecting the quarterback with a adjusted sack rank of 16, if only we had a quarterback who could pass the ball. Check out Football Outsiders for a glossary of terms and the source data.
Adj. LY Rk |
Opp. Rate Rk |
Power Success Rate Rk |
Stuff Rate Rk |
Adj Sack Rate Rk |
Std. Downs Sack Rate Rk |
Pass. Downs Sack Rate Rk |
99 |
80 |
127 |
85 |
16 |
14 |
40 |
Ok, we're terrible at running the ball (surprise, surprise) but we're good at protecting a quarterback defensive backs politely request to pad their stats, suggesting just maybe we're seeing something these numbers weren't meant to measure. Defenses aren't afraid of Stoudt passing, so they're not going to pressure as much. They can just drop back and pick six.
The number of OL recruited aren't to blame for this year's performance, but will start coming into play next year and following. Here's the historical numbers:
Year |
# Committed |
Mean Stars |
2010 |
4 |
3.0 |
2011 |
4 |
3.3 |
2012 |
5 |
3.2 |
2013 |
2 |
3.5 |
2014 |
2 |
3.0 |
The classes playing this year should be 2010-2012, which had healthy numbers. The lone four star in 2011, Eric MacLain, was recruited as a TE but transitioned to the OL. The fact he's not a starter this year isn't a good sign for future performance. The lone four star in 2012 is Isaiah Battle, who is at least playing. Other than that, the incoming talent has been pedestrian. Nothing special, but we would expect something better than what we're seeing. Here's a complete list of OL recruits along with what they are up to:
Year |
Name |
Stars |
Note |
2010 |
3 |
Starting Guard |
|
2010 |
3 |
Gave up football due to injuries |
|
2010 |
3 |
Starting Tackle |
|
2010 |
3 |
Starting Guard |
|
2011 |
Eric MacLain |
4 |
Backup Guard |
2011 |
3 |
Starting Center |
|
2011 |
3 |
Transferred |
|
2011 |
3 |
Backup Guard |
|
2012 |
3 |
Backup Tackle |
|
2012 |
4 |
Starting Left Tackle |
|
2012 |
3 |
Injured Center |
|
2012 |
3 |
Injured Tackle (Medical Redshirt) |
|
2012 |
Patrick Destefano |
3 |
Gave up football due to injuries |
2013 |
3 |
Backup Tackle |
|
2013 |
Tyrone Crowder |
4 |
Backup Guard |
2014 |
3 |
Redshirt Tackle |
|
2014 |
3 |
Redshirt Tackle |
Tyrone Crowder and Isaiah Battle are the highest ranked OL recruits and they are playing. Imagine that. The overall numbers are ok at 3.4 per year, but subtract out Anthony, Timothy, and Destefano for an average of 2.8 and it shows why the line is so thin. There will be busts (MacLain and, so far, Region) and there will be additions (3 star, 2011 DE recruit, Joe Gore), but there needs to be a strong baseline of talent to withstand injuries, transfers, and failure. The fact a four star redshirt freshman is playing ahead of so many upper classmen shows that talent matters.
In terms of options for next year, we probably have Guillermo at center, Crowder at guard, Norton as a backup center, with MacLain, Gore, Region, Reader, Jones, Morris, and the redshirt freshman somewhere mixed in. Hopefully they take a giant leap forward over the course of the next year or we'll be stuck in maybe an even a worse position. Do not count on true freshmen playing even average. They need at least a year of a college strength and conditioning program, even Clemson's.
You pretty much knew this already, so check out the chart below for something interesting.
Year |
Adj. LY Rk |
Power Success Rk |
Adj. Sack Rk |
2005 |
6 |
89 |
27 |
2006 |
9 |
9 |
19 |
2007 |
21 |
56 |
84 |
2008 |
94 |
117 |
62 |
2009 |
35 |
112 |
18 |
2010 |
77 |
50 |
14 |
2011 |
67 |
69 |
42 |
2012 |
26 |
16 |
72 |
2013 |
21 |
31 |
60 |
2014 |
99 |
127 |
16 |
Mean |
45.5 |
67.6 |
41.4 |
Std. Dev. |
35.4 |
42.5 |
26.2 |
Power Success represents strength and conditioning more than any other category. If it is worse than the adjusted line yards and adjusted sack ranks, it means the strength and conditioning is worse than the talent level and coaching. The OL is in the 64 percentile for adjusted line yards and 67 percentile for adjusted sack rank yet 47 percentile for power success over a 10 year span. Read that again. On average, over the course of 10 years, Clemson has a below average power success rate. There realistically aren't that many teams contending to be ranked each year, let alone win a premier bowl. Coaches come and go. Talent comes and goes. Batson remains the same.
The staff needs to prioritize OL recruiting like it is for the 2015 incoming class, falling in the mid 60th percentile of performance is not acceptable. They also have to address problems with strength and conditioning. Yes, I mean, "must." This is a major problem that will prevent competing for a National Championship. I understand that Batson has been in his position for 18 years at Clemson and that you don't want to fire a guy like that. But, he's a director. He makes lots of money and has other options. He isn't someone working to put food on the table, but to buy a bigger boat for the lake house. You should fire a guy at his level who is holding back the program. But if you refuse to do so, if you can't bring yourself to do it, at least move him to a different position. Clemson is a big university with a huge athletic department. You can find a spot for him and he can move on if he doesn't like it. But the numbers are clear as day. Out of 10 years there have been 2 with good Power Success. It needs to be addressed.