FanPost

Benchmarking Tiger Recruiting

Florida State fields a team 0.54 Stars better than our Tigers. Admitting it is hard, but it's worthwhile to see where we fell short in recruiting. Given FSU is the best team in the ACC and a top three team in FBS football, they are a good standard to understand where Clemson needs to improve.

All data referenced is from Rivals 2009 to 2014 to ensure an entire recruiting cycle is covered. While the 2014 class is not yet complete, both teams are nearly reaching their limits and changes in 2014 don't significantly impact the results.

Below is a summary of the Ratings of the team fielded on Saturday per Figurefours' depth chart analysis.

Game on 10/19/13

Offense

Defense

Special Team

Mean

CU

3.21

3.55

2.70

3.25

FSU

3.73

4.00

3.40

3.79

Below is a summary, by position, of recruit ratings:

Mean Stars - CU

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Total

CU - FSU

ATH

3.2

3.0

3.3

3.0

3.0

3.1

-0.4

DB

4.0

3.6

3.0

4.0

3.0

3.4

-0.4

DE

3.0

3.3

3.0

3.7

3.3

-0.2

DT

3.0

3.7

2.7

3.7

4.0

2.0

3.3

-0.4

K

2.0

3.0

3.0

2.7

0.0

LB

3.0

3.3

3.8

3.0

3.3

3.3

3.4

-0.4

OL

4.0

3.0

3.0

3.2

3.5

3.0

3.2

0.0

QB

4.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

3.7

0.4

RB

4.0

3.0

5.0

3.5

3.7

3.8

0.0

TE

2.0

4.0

3.0

3.5

3.2

0.1

WR

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

3.7

3.9

0.2

Total

3.5

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.4

3.4

-0.2

Mean Stars - FSU

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Total

ATH

4.0

3.7

3.0

3.5

3.5

DB

3.8

3.8

3.6

4.0

4.5

4.0

3.8

DE

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

3.0

3.0

3.5

DT

5.0

3.0

3.6

4.3

4.0

3.3

3.6

K

3.0

2.5

2.7

LB

4.0

3.8

3.0

4.0

3.8

4.0

3.8

OL

3.3

3.0

3.3

3.0

3.3

3.3

3.2

QB

3.0

3.0

3.0

4.0

3.0

3.0

3.3

RB

4.0

3.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

3.0

3.8

TE

2.5

3.0

4.0

4.0

3.0

3.0

3.1

WR

3.7

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

3.3

3.7

Total

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.8

3.6

3.3

3.6

CU-FSU

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

0.1

-0.2

Surprisingly, FSU only recruited 0.2 of a Star better overall, but 0.4 Stars better on defense (3.4 CU vs. 3.8 FSU). The offenses have the same rating of 3.5 (2010-2013). What accounts for part of the difference of 0.54 fielded and 0.2 recruited is the number of recruits.

# of Recruits - CU

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Mean

CU - FSU

CU/FSU-1

ATH

0

5

1

3

4

1

2.3

0.3

17%

DB

1

5

2

2

5

0

2.5

-0.7

-21%

DE

2

0

3

1

3

0

1.5

-0.3

-18%

DT

1

3

3

3

1

1

2.0

-1.2

-37%

K

0

0

1

1

0

1

0.5

-1.0

-67%

LB

3

3

5

1

3

4

3.2

0.0

0%

OL

2

4

3

5

2

2

3.0

-0.5

-14%

QB

1

0

3

1

0

1

1.0

-0.2

-14%

RB

1

1

1

0

2

3

1.3

-0.2

-11%

TE

0

1

1

0

1

2

0.8

-0.7

-44%

WR

1

0

4

1

1

3

1.7

-0.7

-29%

Total

12

22

27

18

22

18

19.8

-3.3

-14%

# of Recruits - FSU

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Mean

ATH

1

3

2

2

2.0

DB

4

4

5

3

2

1

3.2

DE

2

1

2

1

3

2

1.8

DT

1

4

5

4

1

4

3.2

K

1

2

1.5

LB

1

6

2

2

5

3

3.2

OL

3

1

8

2

3

4

3.5

QB

1

1

1

2

1

1

1.2

RB

2

1

3

1

1

1

1.5

TE

2

2

1

1

1

2

1.5

WR

3

2

2

1

2

4

2.3

Total

21

25

29

19

21

24

23.2

FSU is recruiting 3.3 more recruits per year, amounting to 13.2 more players over the course of 4 years. Removing 2014 brings the average down to 2.8. Reducing the range to 2010 through 2013 brings the average down to 1.0. Since the benchmarking exercise is to explain where the teams stand now, 2014 is not included in showing the effects of more recruits while 2009 is given there were players from that class on the field.

Breaking down further the classes into number of recruits by Star Rating:

Stars - CU

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Total

CU - FSU

% of Stars

5

4

4

-7

4%

4

7

7

6

8

10

38

-13

38%

3

4

14

13

10

9

50

1

50%

2

1

1

4

3

9

5

9%

Total

12

22

27

18

22

101

-14

100%

Stars - FSU

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Total

CU - FSU

% of Stars

5

2

2

2

3

2

11

7

10%

4

10

9

13

10

9

51

13

44%

3

8

14

13

5

9

49

-1

43%

2

1

1

1

1

4

-5

3%

Total

21

25

29

19

21

115

14

100

From 2009 to 2013, FSU has 14 more players, 7 more 5-Stars, and 13 more 4-Stars. Using FSU's distribution of Stars (i.e. FSU % of 5-Stars*# of Clemson Recruits) Clemson would have these incremental changes to its classes. Also listed is how the classes would change if Clemson recruited the same number as FSU.

Stars

FSU's Distr. of Stars

FSU's Recruited #

5

5.7

1.3

4

6.8

6.2

3

-7.0

6.0

2

-5.5

0.5

Total

0.0

14.0

Clemson would have 5.7 more 5-Stars if it had FSU's percentage of 5-Stars (10%). They would have 1.3 more 5-Stars if they just had the same number of recruits, even with Clemson's percentage of 5-Stars (4%).

FSU outperformed Clemson in recruiting consistently from 2009 to 2013 by 0.2 Stars, but they also managed to recruit 14 more players. While it is difficult to measure, at least with the data available, the effect on Star-level fielded, it accounts towards the 0.34 (0.54-0.20) Star gap. In addition, quality differences should be magnified on the field because the bottom of the class has a lower chance of being a starter or first backup.

Further analysis is recommended on why a 14 person difference exists. Increasing class size seems like an easy way to improve the quality of the team, or at least easier than increasing recruit quality.

These opinions are not necessarily those of the Proprietors of Shakin' The Southland.

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