How the Odds Stack Up--Florida State @ Clemson

Again, we look at past odds as the Tigers take on the Seminoles in Death Valley.  I fielded tons of smartass text mails just before halftime this past week because I referenced Clemson and the under in several categories.  Again, this is what happened in the past and I am just presenting data, not game picks--although that may not be a bad idea.

As always we don't condone illegal, unethical, immoral, or irresponsible actions or behavior.  We are here to analyze how Clemson historically performs compared to handicapped odds.  Now that we're done with the disclaimer, we can get to the good stuff.

Here is the Pick Shark summary of the Clemson/Auburn game from this past Saturday:

Tigers vs Tigers Final: 38-24 - Recap

Clemson's aerial attack produced 386 yards and the Tigers produced a 38-24 victory over Auburn on Saturday at Memorial Stadium.

Clemson was a favorite by 4.5 points and came through with an ATS victory for bettors. The game went OVER the consensus closing total of 58.5.

D.J. Howard rushed for 86 yards, while Andre Ellington added 46 yards in the win. Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins added 155 and 83 receiving yards respectively.

Michael Dyer rushed for 151 yards for Auburn, while Onterio McCalebb added 34 yards. Barrett Trotter threw for 198 yards for the Tigers, while receivers Travante Stallworth and DeAngelo Benton had 71 and 41 yards respectively.

Auburn was outgained by Clemson 624-435 yards in Saturday's match, while the important battle of first downs was won 32-19 by the Tigers.

The time of possession battle favored Clemson as their offense was on the field for 36:15, longer than the 23:45 of their opponents.

Next game, Clemson takes its act home to face Florida State looking for another win. For Auburn, they head home to face Florida Atlantic.

Clearly, Clemson easily covered the spread and this one hit 62 total points, hitting the over against all the odds makers I saw prior to the football game (O/U 58-61 depending on the source).

Again, I have used www.pickshark.com to retrieve this information.  I pulled the current odds from SBNation's Odds Page.  As of Monday evening FSU is the favored by 1.5 to 3 points, depending on the handicapping service.  The O/U here is between 49.5 and 50.5.  See below for a snippet grabbed from Pick Shark.

All_odds_medium

Clemson/FSU Last Five Meetings Overall:

Clemson has defeated FSU three out of the last five overall meetings.  The Tigers are 4-1 against the spread in these contests, with FSU successfully beating/covering the spread in Swinney's first season ('08).  In terms of the over/under, there were two overs, two unders, and a push--this has been a true coin flip.

Clem_fsu_last_5_overall_medium

Clemson/FSU Last Five Meetings in Clemson:

Clemson has won four of the last five contests between these two teams in Death Valley and have covered/beaten the spread in all of the games won straight up.  The lone FSU victory occurred back in 2001.  Three of the five games have been won by the over with an alternating over/under pattern showing over these games.

Clem_fsu_last_5_in_clemson_medium

Clemson's Last 10 ACC Games:

Clemson is a coin flip straight up over the past 10 ACC games and is 0.400 ATS.  Seven of the ten contests hit the under and Clemson is riding a seven game under streak.  I will note that these data include an ACCCG contest against the Rambling Wreck.

Clemson_last_10_acc_medium

FSU's Last 10 ACC Games:

FSU has won 70% of its last 10 ACC contests, even with the ACCCG loss last December against Va Tech.  In those games, FSU has covered/beaten the spread 40% of the time over this time period.

Fsu_last_10_acc_medium

Clemson's Last 10 Home Games:

You'll probably notice that the South Florida game was included here by Pick Shark and was not omitted from the table shown below.  Clemson lost that football game, did not cover the spread, and the points total hit the over.  We'll eliminate that one from our discussion.  Thus, Clemson is 7-2 straight up in Death Valley and 4-4 ATS (no line for last season's PC game).  Over / Under is a coin toss but I'll note that Clemson's game hit the over in each of this season's contests.

Clemson_last_10_home_medium

FSU's Last 10 Road Games:

We'll leave the Peach, Gator, and ACCCG neutral site games here because they are technically away from Tallahassee and Doak.  FSU is 6-4 both SU and ATS and their games hit the over 60% of the time.

Fsu_last_10_away_medium

Clemson's Last 10 Games as a Dog:

Clemson wins 20% of its games as an underdog and is 5-5 ATS in those games with exactly half of these contests going over.  I'll note that four of the last five such games fell into the under category.

Clemson_last_10_underdog_medium

FSU's Last 10 Games as a Favorite:

FSU is 8-2 as a favorite and split 5/5 ATS.  Eight of these contests hit the under.

Fsu_last_10_favorite_medium

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