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WR/TE "Efficiency" Troy through Boston College

CLEMSON, SC - SEPTEMBER 24:  Sammy Watkins #2 of the Clemson Tiger catches a pass for a touchdown against Lamarcus Joyner #20 of the Florida State Seminoles during their game at Memorial Stadium on September 24, 2011 in Clemson, South Carolina.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

We want to look at the effectiveness of the Clemson players as we move through the season.  The "effectiveness" will be evaluated through standard stats along with participation numbers.  Today, we look at the wide receivers and tight ends and augment our thoughts with cumulative statistics through the Boston College game with information found at the Clemson Athletics Website, www.clemsontigers.com.   The first table (see below) illustrates basic statistics.

PLAYER

POSITION

Rec

Yards

Y/Rec

Rec/G

Y/G

TD

20+

LG

Sammy Watkins

WR

38

623

16.4

6.3

103.8

6

10

65

DeAndre Hopkins

WR

24

331

13.8

4

55.2

2

4

50

Dwayne Allen

TE

22

340

15.5

3.7

56.7

4

6

54

Jaron Brown

WR

14

204

14.6

2.3

34

2

3

29

Adam Humphries

WR

4

26

6.5

0.7

4.3

0

0

8

Martavis Bryant

WR

3

129

43

0.5

21.5

1

3

54

Brandon Ford

TE/WR

3

21

7

0.5

3.5

0

0

9

Charone Peake

WR

2

41

20.5

0.3

6.8

0

1

24

Joe Craig

WR

1

8

8

0.3

2.7

0

0

8

Bryce McNeal

WR

1

8

8

0.3

2.7

0

0

8

Not surprisingly for anyone who has watched the Tigers this season, Clemson is led by freshman WR Sammy Watkins in all categories and is closely supported by fellow WR Nuk Hopkins and TE Dwayne Allen.  Watkins' numbers are impressive by themselves but eye popping when you realize that he is a true freshman.  Hopkins' and Allen's stats are both very nice, particularly when you realize that each would be the target of more passes if Watkins wasn't so impressive.  Jaron Brown also has over 200 yards on the year to round out the top 4 WR/TE pass catchers.

We really were interested in how these averages panned out when they were placed in context of snaps taken.  Below we have incorporated participation data for each player (total snaps) and calculated the percent of the total receptions per snaps taken (Reception %), reception yards per snap, and total touchdown catches per snaps taken (TD %).  I'll point out that snaps are all snaps (both passing plays and non-passing plays), so obviously these numbers are influenced by the offense's run/pass ratio.

PLAYER

POSITION

Total Snaps

Reception %

Yards/Snap

TD %

Sammy Watkins

WR

309

12.298%

2.016

1.942%

DeAndre Hopkins

WR

301

7.973%

1.100

0.664%

Dwayne Allen

TE

367

5.995%

0.926

1.090%

Jaron Brown

WR

250

5.600%

0.816

0.800%

Adam Humphries

WR

92

4.348%

0.283

0.000%

Martavis Bryant

WR

80

3.750%

1.613

1.250%

Brandon Ford

TE/WR

114

2.632%

0.184

0.000%

Charone Peake

WR

115

1.739%

0.357

0.000%

Joe Craig

WR

12

8.333%

0.667

0.000%

Bryce McNeal

WR

44

2.273%

0.182

0.000%

Again, Watkins is the most impressive and most "effective" of the pass catchers to date.  The freshman recorded a reception on well over 12% of his snaps and recorded a touchdown on nearly 2% of snaps taken.  This young man contributes just over 2 yards per snap.  Excluding Joe Craig who has an 8.33% Reception % but has seen very limited experience this season, Nuk had the next highest reception percentage (near 8% of his snaps) and contributed over a yard per snap while on the football field.  Allen (nearly 6% Reception %) and Brown (5.6% Reception %) again rounded out the WR/TE contributions.

I'll note two other players, Adam Humphries and Martavis Bryant, who have contributed "efficiently" as freshmen.  Humphries had receptions on over 4% of his plays and Bryant on 3.75% of his plays.  Bryant has three long catches and a touchdown during his time on the field.

I am a little surprised at Charone Peake's performance this season.  He has over 100 snaps but no TDs and has caught a ball less than 1.75% of his snaps to this point.  With so many snaps to date, I would say I'd expect a little higher output particularly when you consider how much pure talent Peake possesses.  Peake's sure TD against Boston College would have improved his TD% and probably assured him a few more snaps moving forward.  Swinney openly discussed Peake and pretty much said he would have more opportunities in the future, so I will be interested in these numbers at season's end.

I expect to see Martavis Bryant on the field a little more now that he's (hopefully) better mastered the playbook.  This is a guy who can spread the field with his speed and, to his credit, has already drawn pass interference calls where the defender had to grab him to avoid the big play.

I am not exactly sure what Joe Craig's participation will look like as the season progresses, but am not particularly encouraged for obvious reasons.  Clearly Bryce McNeal won't be contributing further.  I'll say that Brandon Ford has been fairly efficient with his snaps, especially when you consider that passes to the TE or flexed TE will be going to Dwayne Allen because, well, he is just that good.

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Targets

Here’s a lot of target/catch data from Bill Connelly over at Football Study Hall (although it only goes through Week 5 so far): http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2011/10/4/2468064/data-sharing-targets-and-catches-through-five-weeks

by OrangeBritches on Oct 12, 2011 6:12 AM EDT reply actions  

Was suprised to see the snaps

Humphries has more snaps than Bryant or Peake. That’s pretty shocking to me considering that they are, supposedly, much better than him. Not sure which. Humphries seems to be what we thought he would be, he catches everything coming his way and is an efficient reciever. However, Peake’s low snaps has also baffeled me. During the preseason it was thought that Peake would take over Brown as some point, but to be fair, Brown has seriously stepped up his game and is money for us this year. I’m sure he’ll get his time and to be honest I feel good that we have so many targets to give the ball to. It makes it nigh impossible for teams to shut our O down. Too many targets and the 3rd or 4th option is just as good as the 1st or 2nd.

One question, which McNeal leaving how is behind Sammy in the depth chart? Is it Humphries or do you think that Craig will take that over eventually?

by D'Arve21 on Oct 12, 2011 8:13 AM EDT reply actions  

That is a good analysis.

I am a little surprised that Peake and Bryant have not had more touches, but there are a ton of people at that position who can make plays. Just night and day from last year.

What about the coaching? There have been a few drops, but nothing like last year.

"Clemson is coming!" - Stephone Anthony

by Tigerplowboy on Oct 12, 2011 9:14 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Not sure I agree with the conclusions

I appreciate the effort involved in the data mining here. I also appreciate the attempt at quantifying the performance we’ve seen out on the field.

I’m just not sure I agree with the conclusions that have been drawn from the data. Using catches per snap produces an easy, exact number, but what does that really communicate? You indicate that you’re surprised with Peake’s performance based upon his 1.75% figure, but I disagree that this is an indicator of performance. There is far too much noise involved with the statistics here.

Too many things are outside of the player’s control and the sample size is far too small for that noise to correct itself effectively. Off the top of my head, the player is limited in his potential contribution by the following (among other things):
*Play choice (potential targets)
*Quarterback effectiveness on that particular play

In my opinion, statistic analysis of this nature is only effective when we truly isolate to determine true performance. Using catches per snap to rate the “performance” of wide receivers is faulty from the start and is bound to lead to conclusions that just aren’t supported by the data.

There is also the problem that catches per snap are almost certainly going to decrease the further down the depth chart you go. In my estimation, this is true for two reasons. For one, these players are likely in the game more often when it is out of reach. In these instances, Clemson is more likely to run the ball than they would have been with the game in doubt. This skews the data toward the starters. Another possible explanation is that the Clemson coaching staff may be more likely to call pass plays with top pass-catching personnel in the game, further skewing the data.

I think this data can be used to effectively evaluate how efficiently our personnel has been used. Is it “worth” using Charone Peake given the catch per snap figures? I tend to think that these questions can be answered with the data presented, but the analysis focuses its efforts elsewhere.

by TigerPawsSC on Oct 12, 2011 11:01 AM EDT reply actions  

I actually think the catches per snap number is pretty telling.

Great players are in more and have more balls thrown their way. Second string players are in less, and will have fewer balls thrown their way. Sure there are other variables, but they are all basically getting passes from the same QB, they all play in the same offense, they are going against the same defenses. Now, I don’t think this would be a fair analysis if you were comparing receivers on different teams, but I think it is good for comparing those on our team.

"Clemson is coming!" - Stephone Anthony

by Tigerplowboy on Oct 12, 2011 12:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

The problem is that it’s trying to put an exact figure on incredibly inexact analysis. When you attach numbers to something like this – for instance “1.5%” – you intimate that the analysis is producing exact results that measure efficiency.

The point is that it’s not. When it comes to statistical analysis, “other variables” make all the difference. This is especially true when the margins are so small (i.e. comparing 1.5% to 2.5%).

If the point is to tell me that Sammy Watkins has performed better than Cherone Peake, then fine. The numbers will indicate that. But I’m not sure that we need any sort of statistical analysis to illustrate that point. Where this sort of analysis fails is when it seeks to quantify the differences between players with comparable skill sets.

Basically – I disagree with the attempt to attach numbers while not account for the all-important “variables” that you seem to dismiss. If the goal is to accurately describe how players have performed (presumably for purposes of projecting future performance) using numbers, then the analysis must at least acknowledge the variables, even if it’s impossible to account for them.

by TigerPawsSC on Oct 12, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Brown has been money

and is a great blocker this year. What a turnaround in his game from last year.

by utgolfer on Oct 12, 2011 11:06 AM EDT reply actions  

Sammy Watkins and Germone Hopper

Aside from the speed and hands, the one thing that stands out to me about Sammy is the little things he does that resemble an NFL receiver. It makes me wonder how much film or time he has put in studying those guys, or who has taugh him those little things.. It cant be Jeff Scott, because here are two things I haven’t seen from our receivers before:

Avoiding big hits- We saw Charone take a couple this year, and Nuke took a couple last year over the middle. But has anyone noticed that given the amount of catches he makes in traffic and across the middle, Sammy rarely takes big shots? You see this a lot from polished NFL guys with long careers, they make the catch in the middle, get what they can, and then GET DOWN. Even when he makes the catch jumping across the middle in traffic he heads for the ground instead of exposing himself to the KO. Check it out this week if you haven’t.

Sideline grabs- Yes Nuke last year showed some of this ability to drag a foot, but Sammy always goes for getting two in bounds.. and he has shown that ability to make his body almost go “limp” as he makes the catch on the sideline and falls to the ground instead of running through the pass and dragging a foot. Quite impressive.

On another note, where does a guy like Germone Hopper fit into this system? Will he be playing the same role as Watkins? Do you guys think he’ll redshirt first year?

"Just because you've had 2 or 3 good games doesn't mean anything right now. It's not the first 3 games you're going to be remembered by." - The Chad

by scgreatest803 on Oct 12, 2011 12:15 PM EDT reply actions  

I would think Hopper takes a RS

but it depends on Craig too in a way. If Craig picks it up, they’d be more inclined to RS.

by DrB on Oct 12, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

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