The BlogPoll - Preseason Ballot
by DrB on Aug 20, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
in FUTBAW
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PrintThis year, with The BlogPoll moving over to SBN and the ACC down on voting members, and me usually watching 30 hours of college football each week, we decided to sign up for it. Other than this initial ballot, it'll be up for discussion every week before we submit on Wednesdays. You can give your opinion on how we move teams up and down and how wrong the national polls are.
Everyone knows the preseason polls mean nothing at all, and usually half the poll falls out before coming back in around midseason, with the usual surprises.
Below you'll see how we rated the teams in the Top 25 initially, taking into account their returning cast, last season's performances, and who we think is actually going to improve next year.
Shakin' The Southland Ballot - Week 1
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -- |
| 2 | Ohio St. Buckeyes | -- |
| 3 | Oklahoma Sooners | -- |
| 4 | TCU Horned Frogs | -- |
| 5 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | -- |
| 6 | Virginia Tech Hokies | -- |
| 7 | Boise St. Broncos | -- |
| 8 | Texas Longhorns | -- |
| 9 | Florida Gators | -- |
| 10 | Oregon Ducks | -- |
| 11 | Utah Utes | -- |
| 12 | Iowa Hawkeyes | -- |
| 13 | Miami Hurricanes | -- |
| 14 | Houston Cougars | -- |
| 15 | Penn St. Nittany Lions | -- |
| 16 | LSU Tigers | -- |
| 17 | BYU Cougars | -- |
| 18 | South Florida Bulls | -- |
| 19 | Pittsburgh Panthers | -- |
| 20 | Navy Midshipmen | -- |
| 21 | Arkansas Razorbacks | -- |
| 22 | West Virginia Mountaineers | -- |
| 23 | Connecticut Huskies | -- |
| 24 | Oregon St. Beavers | -- |
| 25 | Auburn Tigers | -- |
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings "
The Top 5 are pretty explanatory. Alabama and Ohio State are the cream of their conference. Oklahoma I rated so high because I feel they will win over FSU (in Norman) early and defeat Texas in the Red River Rivalry. Thats also why I pushed Texas lower than the pollsters did, and the Longhorns face Nebraska 2 weeks after OU, which I also see them losing. Texas brings back a lot, but they also lost Colt McCoy, and I can see them stumbling a couple times with a new QB. TCU may as well be rated this high, since I don't see anyone beating them except possibly Utah late in the year.
I don't know about Nebraska's offense but their defense should be dominant, as should Virginia Tech's. VT will beat Boise State, who will probably not lose again, but stumble elsewhere in their schedule.
Florida lost Tim Tebow, and though I expect them to win the SEC East, they will lose a couple times. Houston may win their games 35-33 but they will set passing records and should win 9 games at least, so I put them in the Top 15. LSU has an idiot as a head coach and a bigger one at Offensive Coord., but on talent alone they should win 9 games.
BYU I expect to lose to FSU early but the rest of the schedule is manageable aside from TCU (at TCU). USF may beat most of their schedule just on talent but Skippy can actually coach, unlike Granny Clampett, so I see them competing for the Big East title this year until the very end with Pitt. I think Skip reverses their late-season collapse trend.
I know people wonder about Navy but they went 10-4 last year and I think simply by execution they will win 9 or possibly 10 again against a manageable schedule. Arky has the best WRs in the SEC, and possibly the nation, with a QB in another year of a high-octane system. They may not play much defense but 8-9 wins is possible.
UConn deserves a spot simply because they play hard and play smart, and rarely beat themselves. They don't have great talent but somehow Edsall gets them to play to the level of their opponent every week, and thats the mark of a great motivator.
People are going to complain but heres my reasoning for leaving some teams off that have been included nationally, or rating others low.
Auburn needs to display a defense. Chizik should have them doing better, so I did put them at 25. The SEC West is going to be tough either way.
Most people probably would've thought we'd rate more ACC teams in the Top 25, but I have more questions about the ACC teams. FSU hasnt shown they can play defense, period. When I see it then I'd put them in. Tallahassee has taken some hits of late as well and if we put them on the ballot, they may be knocked off in two weeks. Its not an easy schedule for them this year. UNC hasn't shown they can play offense, same deal. Boston College has a patsy-laden schedule and I respect Spaz for how he teaches a defense but I'm not confident enough about their QB situation to rank them.
I won't put Clemson in until I see them play. I rarely ever think Clemson should be ranked at all until we beat somebody. I'm going to wait until I see the Auburn game.
The Gamecocks - HAHAHAHA yeah right. Georgia? Nope, not with that QB situation. Georgia has Top 10-15 talent but I need to see them play a tough road game with a new QB first.
Washington Huskies have Jake Locker, but are still only a couple years removed from being absolutely dreadful.
USC Trojans - on talent alone they are Top 5, like LSU. However they also have an idiot as head coach and major off-the-field distractions.
Your thoughts?
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Like the Poll
Just did mine as well. I like your poll, I too tried to find a measure between prediction and overall quality of ball club for the preseason rankings. It will be an interesting year to say the least. Outside of Bama & Ohio State there are so many ways to justify 3-10 and 11-25.
Like your call on Florida. I’m similar there. They lose arguably the greatest college football player of my 25 years plus a host of NFL guys, and staff members and don’t expect much drop off? Seems crazy.
I’m bullish on Georgia. Murray’s an upgrade at QB skillwise and the last time Richt had an uber talented frosh they went 9-3 and Stafford wasn’t throwing to AJ Green or playing with an experienced OL.
Looking forward to it partner. Should be a fun one.
http://inthebleachers.net
by InTheBleachers on Aug 20, 2010 9:26 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Wow, USF at #18 ahead of Pitt
I can understand your thinking on this, but it’s just so different to see anyone putting them up as high as that after the way they’ve flamed-out the last several years.
I also like that you’ve included SIX teams from non-AQ conferences. Bravo on that, sir.
"I like the taste of danger most of all." - Jonatha Brooke
I kind of like not being ranked because we always do better when we come in under the radar.
I actually think the coots should be ranked because they have a lot of people back and the east is down this year.
There is something in these Hills!
i'd make a couple of changes
i don’t think usf or connecticut should be ranked. i have more beef with usf, inconsistent team with a new coach. i’d drop byu down a little, breaking in a new qb. no way you can rank tcu ahead of boise st, boise’s got almost all starters returning and they played last year and boise won. utah i think is about 8 spots too high. i’d probably put penn st around 20. i’d flip flop pitt and houston, navy and arkansas.
of course i rank teams on how good they are
and not by who they’ll lose to.
Who was it that said the best indicator of how a team would do was the experience of their offensive line?
Seriously, I remember reading somewhere that one of these so-called experts put a lot of weight on the number of combined starts of the returning offensive linemen, and that his predictions were usually fairly accurate. If this is a major determining factor in a team’s success (or lack thereof), then we should be in pretty good shape this year and probably next year.
I know yall do not like Brad Scott as an O-line coach, but you have to believe playing for basically two years has to help our guys be better linemen. Hairston, Walker, McClain, and Cloy are all basically three year starters at this point.
There is something in these Hills!
Sometimes experience of bad coaching
can build up enough so that you do eventually learn how to block.
a few things
1st of all I think IF Boise St. beats VT they will go undefeated and most likely play in the national title. I will wait until after that game before passing judgement on them. Also I like Houston being up there and think they have a chance to go undefeated too. Florida I think will be better than 9. I only see them losing to bama and they will likely get 2 cracks at them so a win in one of those two puts them in the top 4 or 5 for me (12-1 and either SEC champs or runner up). I also wouldn’t count Texas out yet because even though McCoy is gone, his backup looked pretty good against Bama. Also where is Wisconsin?
Are TCU, BYU, et al, ranked based on how good they are or how weak their schedule is?
The author writes, “TCU may as well be rated this high, since I don’t see anyone beating them except possibly Utah late in the year.” So it sounds like the author is saying that TCU isn’t actually better than the other 21 teams ranked behind them, but that their record will be so good against a weak schedule that the AP will end up having TCU ranked this high. Does the author really believe that TCU would likely beat Nebraska, VT, Texas, Florida, et al? That’s hard for me to believe.
Similarly, the author writes that he thinks that unranked FSU will beat BYU whom he ranks #17. So it seems that the author doesn’t think that BYU is the 17th best team (or that FSU deserves to be unranked), but that BYU’s record through a weak schedule will afford them a #17 AP ranking by a bunch reporters who place more emphasis on number of wins than on quality of wins, while FSU’s record through a tougher schedule won’t afford them a post-season AP ranking.
This reminds me of Phil Steele’s “Projected AP Ranking” where he ranks teams based on where he expects the silly AP voters to rank the teams. (Phil Steele has a separate ranking where he ranks teams based on which team he thinks is better than which other team.)
I hate that people rank teams based on the number or wins, rather than the quality of wins (and losses). It reminds me of the craziness in 1984 when AP & UPI awarded a national championship to an undefeated BYU in 1984, even though BYU didn’t beat any team that finished ranked, and only beat one bowl team (Air Force) during the regular season. BYU’s toughest game was beating (6-5) Michigan in the Holiday Bowl. Poor Washington finished #2 that year despite going 11-1, losing only at USC (who finished #10) and despite playing 4 bowl teams (3 of whom finished ranked)… and beating Michigan in the big house.
AP/Coaches poll yes, but in a sense better teams
Teams like TCU have the ability to beat the Nebraskas and VTs of the world in bowl games. Teams that win 10-11 games have their issues ironed out at the end of the season and are never a slouch, but they wouldnt go 10-2 or 11-1 against the equivalent schedule.
polls
your polls were in some ways understandable but i think they were consdvative in many ways. va. tech will not have a good defense for the first time in years due to key p;ayers moving on ,therefore, boise states vicory will not be as impressive.
thomas a johnson
polls
Alabama will not win the title again but wil lose 2 games and remain in the top ten.boise deserves to be in the top ten va tech does not. Watch out for Auburn, and iowa , who will both finish in the top five with fla, alabama, and Bpise st.- oklahoma, nebraska , and texas
will fight it out got the 2nd ten but because they play one another .so.look for two of the three in the 10- 15 spots. Va tech lost too many on defense and for the first time in mnay years will have an average defense. Do not undestimate 3 acc teams miami, fla st and clemson to finish anywhere from 10 -20. Cannot allow Boise to be in the title game based on strength of shedule so i will go with auburn vs oklahoma for the national title. and iowa as a close 2nd to make it..
thomas a johnson
s.c
south carolina will never beat georgia between the hedges agaain because they disrespected there home by pulling up the landscape the LAST time they won in georgia
thomas a johnson
G Tech?
no Georgia Tech or South Carolina? hating on your rivals huh?
i have more beef with no GT; was that a mistake or something? every poll ive seen has us ~16-17
as far as USC, i think they have enough talent returning and as someone else said, the east is down. then again, whats the point… theyll go on a losing streak as soon as they get ranked like always
by Full Steam Ahead on Aug 25, 2010 12:51 PM EDT reply actions
I see no reason to rank them
Groh couldnt manufacture a great defense at UVA, I don’t see why I should put faith into Year 1 of his scheme elsewhere when the GT defense lost its better players.
Losing Thomas and Dwyer also discounts GT in my book.
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