FigureFour's 2010 Predictions
by FIGUREFOUR on Aug 19, 2010 5:00 AM EDT
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PrintThis year I decided to take a new approach to predicting what the Tigers will do this season. After being impressed with a method the folks at Tomahawk Nation described at the beginning of last football season, I have decided to utilize their method to try to guage my confidence in the Tigers this season. The format is pretty simple. I will lay out a schedule and give my estimated confidence level (from 0% to 100%) on a Clemson victory over that week's performance. This will allot fractions of wins over the course of the schedule. At the end of the schedule, I will then sum these confidence projections and give a projected record that may or (probably) may not consist of whole numbers.
North Texas: The Labor Day Weekend gets started with Clemson hosting one of the worst teams in all the land. This Sun Belt Conference participant is, at least, a Division I-A program, so at least we did schedule someone from this classification. North Texas had a sporty 2-9 record last season, a 1-11 record in 2008, and a 2-10 record in '07. This will be a nice way for the Tigers to ease into 2010 and hopefully a game that this squad can use to work on a few things. There is no conceivable chance that Clemson loses this one.
Presbyterian College: PC rolls into the Valley to set up a second consecutive September mid-afternoon contest in Tigertown. The Blue Hose from Clinton represent Division II and should pose no threat to the Tigers. Clemson should turn this into a glorified scrimmage to assure that we have our ducks in a row before entering the meat of the schedule. Again, there is no chance that Clemson gets beaten by PC.
Auburn: This is the first real test of this football squad. Auburn has turned some heads under second year AU coach Gene Chizik. Auburn looked really good at times last season and have enough players coming back to make a legit run at second place in the West. This will be a good measuring stick for the (Clemson) Tigers. This is a night game in a tough environment against a quality SEC team. I do I think that Clemson has a chance to win? Yes. These two programs have statistically recruited about the same quality athletes over the past five years. Auburn has, however, gotten quite a few more signatures correlating to a little more talent on their squad. The big match up here will be Kevin Steele vs. Gus Malzahn. You have to give the edge to Auburn in this one with the game on the Plains at night.
Miami: Clemson is the beneficiary of a bye week between the Auburn and Miami games. I expect that Miami will bring a quality squad into Tigertown. Jacory Harris has another year's experience under his belt and should be improved over last season. Randy Shannon, new contract and all, is under pressure to win and win big that the "U". Clemson is fortunate to have this one in the Valley, and will take advantage of being at home. The Tigers are very capable of matching up with the Hurricanes and, if we can improve at the linebacker position, should be able to present this Miami offense a bit of a challenge. I think Clemson will win this one and really catches two big breaks in the timing of the bye week and the location of the game.
UNC: This contest is in the friendly confines of Kenan Stadium. If anyone gets the opportunity, I recommend a trip to Chapel Hill for this one. While the fans can be snotty, the campus and area around the stadium are really nice and the weather should be great for this mid-August match-up. A road trip to NC for the players is less than intimidating. While this basketball school has may have made big strides since Butch Davis' arrival, they still have a ways to go if they are going to contend for a title. There is little question that this will be a tough, though defense to face. The real dilemma for UNC is putting points on the board. I am giving Clemson a slight edge in this one but really see think this thing could go either way.
Maryland: Oh Ralph Friedgen, you have been a thorn in Clemson's side for many years now. I swear this man has a Clemson voodoo doll with all kinds of pins in it. He and George O'Leary gave Clemson fits at Georgia Tech. I have watched him somehow squeak one out against the Tigers the past two contests in Tigertown and again last season in one of the worst played games that I have ever watched. Maryland shouldn't beat Clemson. Heck, the big guy probably shouldn't still have a job (high buyouts and James Franklin are keeping you snug for at least this season). Thus, this should be the year that Clemson gets its act together and isn't shocked once again. I will-possibly in my desire for some revenge-predict that Clemson should win and win easily.
Georgia Tech: Clemson gets this squad at home. Georgia Tech has gotten after Clemson the past few seasons, with the Tigers' last win over the Atlanta squad coming way back in 2006 on the legs of James Davis and C. J. Spiller. Tech has lost a good bit of quality talent from last year's ACC Championship squad. While I like Paul Johnson and think that his offense is, when run fundamentally correctly, nearly impossible to stop. That being said, I just cannot see Clemson losing five consecutive games to GT, especially with what I believe is a more (overall) talented squad.
Boston College: Boston College is one of those teams who is a constant thorn in your side. They come out there and are committed to being flat out tough. That and Spaziani has a mustache an ‘80's porn star would envy. Year after year, this team just finds ways to win more games than they probably should. Clemson has won two straight against the Eagles AND I am not nearly as scared of this team since O'Brien has been gone for quite a while and Jags bolted. I am pretty confident that Clemson will return from Beantown with a "W".
NC State: Every year you hear about how NC State should be this or that. Quite frankly, I am very surprised that Tom O'Brien has not been more successful already. His teams are known for getting better and better as the season progresses and for playing good tough fundamental ball. You cannot deny that NC State has suffered quite a few injuries the past year or two, but I still cannot convince myself that this squad will come close to beating Clemson in Clemson.
Florida State: The ‘Noles are my preseason pick to win the Atlantic. Jimbo Fisher is the real deal and has risen this offense from the Jeff Bowden experiment to become one of the most potent machines in college football. I look for big improvements from this squad defensively. This one will probably be another no-holds-barred Tallahassee alley fight. I think FSU will be much more organized and improved on the defensive side of the ball. Even with the recent problems that some ‘Noles' players have had with law enforcement and team rules violations, I still think Christian Ponder and this offense are the real deal and will be a force in the ACC hunt this season.
Wake Forest: Jim Grobe is another coach who has been a thorn in Clemson's side. It took a while for us to figure out how to mitigate his chopping and cutting style coupled with some misdirection. I always get all puckered up when we roll to Wake because of the (lack of) atmosphere and Clemson's history of playing flat against the Demon Deacons. I, however, don't think that Swinney will allow this team to overlook this Wake squad, especially after he was a part of a couple of embarrassments to the Deacs as a part of Coach Bowden's staff. That being said, I am pretty confident that Clemson will win in Winston-Salem.
South Carolina: Clemson gets the in-state rival at home this season. If memory serves me correctly, the Gamecocks will again have an open week play Troy the week before this game. South Carolina has quite a few questions coming into this season, particularly involving production at the QB position and replacing Eric Norwood. South Carolina has not beaten Clemson in consecutive seasons since the great Tom Suggs was on the field in the late ‘60's and early ‘70's. That being said, I don't see Clemson dropping two in a row to their Columbia-based counterpart.
|
Date |
Opposition |
Location |
FF's Confidence Level |
|
September 04, 2010 |
North Texas |
Clemson, SC |
100% |
|
September 11, 2010 |
Presbyterian |
Clemson, SC |
100% |
|
September 18, 2010 |
@Auburn |
Auburn, AL |
45% |
|
October 02, 2010 |
Miami (FL) |
Clemson, SC |
60% |
|
October 09, 2010 |
@UNC |
Chapel Hill, NC |
53% |
|
October 16, 2010 |
Maryland |
Clemson, SC |
80% |
|
October 23, 2010 |
Ga. Tech |
Clemson, SC |
65% |
|
October 30, 2010 |
@BC |
Boston, MA |
75% |
|
November 06, 2010 |
NC State |
Clemson, SC |
75% |
|
November 13, 2010 |
@FSU |
Tallahassee, FL |
43% |
|
November 20, 2010 |
@Wake Forest |
Winston-Salem, NC |
80% |
|
November 27, 2010 |
South Carolina |
Clemson, SC |
65% |
Projected Regular Season Totals: 8.40 Wins 3.60 Losses
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Comments
Reposted from February 6th by me:
North Texas .99<—-gimme
Presbyterian 1.0<—-gimme
@Auburn .45<—-tossup, better chance of L than W (being away)
Miami .55<—-better chance of W than L (being at home)
@UNC .55<—-tossup purely due to bad offense from UNC
Maryland .9<—-revenge factor against ol’ lard butt
Georgia Tech .7<—-at home, pertty difficult game
@BC .6<—-possible surprise loss, but one we SHOULD win
NC State .8<—-home, and we handled their great offense last year
@FSU .35<—-this might produce a very ugly score
@Wake Forest .8<—-should roll, but it’s in WF where we have a hard time getting it going sometimes
South Carolina .8<—factored in revenge factor, plus at home. They do have a good team, though.
8.49 total wins. That fits as I was thinking 8-9 wins this season.
My only two concerns...
GT has won 6 of the last 7 against the Tigers and 4 of the last 6 at Clemson. We only really lost key pieces from our defense, which didn’t do anything against Clemson last year anyways. So I’m struggling to see how you all have a 65%-70% confidence in this game.
Second, I seriously doubt Clemson will be favored going into Chapel Hill. Sounds like you all are drinking too much purple and orange Kool-Aid. I think that game’s gonna be a nasty drag down fight and without your playmakers in Ford and Spiller will be a low scoring affair.
I write stuff From the Rumble Seat.
Maybe the particular confidence level is a bit high, but it’s not like we’ve had anything go right in any of these games.
We pretty much spotted you two TDs last September, and nearly won the game anyway. We changed coaches the week of the 08 game, turned the ball over 6 damn times, and still nearly beat you at home. Forcing a single punt probably would have won the ACCCG.
It’s hardly a streak of dominance. It’s a streak of misfortune for us and good fortune for you. In all likelihood, it’s an evenly matched game, and it’s at home where we’ve only lost once since that 08 game. With any luck, we won’t roll any more long snaps back to the punter.
by OrangeBritches on Aug 19, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
We have had some bad luck with GT.
That being said, we could not stop them in the ACCCG, so something will have to change if we want to beat them this year. I agree with you about 2008…we pretty much gave that one away. Pick six, turnovers…just an ugly game.
There is something in these Hills!
by Tigerplowboy on Aug 19, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I have to agree with Bird. While I would like to think that we will beat GT this year, I could not put my confidence level above 50-55%. We have yet to beat PJ, for whatever reason. You can call it misfortune, bad luck, whatever, we just havent done it. At some point we will have to create our own luck, avoid big turnovers, keep them from getting up by 3 TDs early, and stop them multiple times on fourth down/make them punt. I hope this is the year, but who can accurately predict what our offense and their defense will do this season? The game will most likely be like most of our matchups – hard fought and close. The team with the least amount of mistakes will win.
Only key losses were defense?
Uh no, replacing Dwyer and Bebe Thomas too. Roddy Jones is good but you cannot assume to just plug in a new FB and WR recruit and expect the same level of performance.
well...
Starting B-backs under Paul Johnson have averaged 5 yards a carry every year no matter what. So I’m not worried about the fullback position. Whoever plays that position will get their yards. We’re not replacing CJ Spiller or Calvin Johnson at B-Back. We’re replacing a very good college back with another very good college back.
Wide receiver will be a much more interesting situatin. Even though Demaryius was a majority of our passing offense, he was still only 19.5% of our total offense and 13.8% of our total TD’s. Stephen Hill and Tyler Melton combined should be able to make up for the loss of Demaryius’ offensive production. Explosiveness and game breaking abilities are really where we’ll be missing Thomas.
A-backs are solid. No worries there.
I write stuff From the Rumble Seat.
And I was referring to replacements...
We’re gonna struggle a lot more to replace Derrick Morgan and Morgan Burnett than Jon Dwyer and Demaryius Thomas. We haven’t recruited a talent near Derrick or Morgan’s level on defense since 2006 so it’ll be interesting to see what the replacements do. Offense, as I mentioned, doesn’t have the gaping holes that defense does.
I write stuff From the Rumble Seat.
GT has had to replace some studs they have had on their D the last 3 to 4 yrs
Morgan was just the latest. If Al Groh can get you D up to par with O as the season progresses, you guys could very well be in the BCS again. Tech will score, but Allen alone cannot lessen the impact of the loss of both Thomas (his blocking was the most impressive thing about this game) and Dwyer. GT’s ace in the hole ( the always underrated Nesbitt) needs more help than just Allen and the offensive line. The A backs need to be more consistent in the passing game, and somebody not named Stephen(sp?) Hill need to show up as well.
On Bebe
you can’t just say he only accounted for 19.5% of your offense. he added an entirely different aspect to your offense, something that kept the safeties off balanced because you couldn’t just leave your corner on an island with that guy— when we did start bringing our safties up to help stop the run PJ noticed and Thomas well you know the story
by Tigershine88 on Aug 19, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
That is a really good analysis.
It basically says what I think which is there are a lot of potentially tough games but none which we absolutely can’t win. I personally think that if we beat Auburn, Miami, and UNC that we will be undefeated when we roll into Tallahassee.
There is something in these Hills!
So you are saying that if we win three out of the four toughest games to that point (GT being the other) that we will be undefeated @FSU? Not exactly going out on a limb. I personally think we will be lucky to win two of those three and I certainly hope we do because I will be at all three of them.
No, it is not going out on a limb.
How about if we beat Auburn, then we will be un-defeated going into FSU? May not be a conference game, but if we win that one, then it will give us a big confidence boost going into the open date and will really get the Tiger Nation fired up.
There is something in these Hills!
by Tigerplowboy on Aug 19, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
We beat Auburn
in 2003 and 2005 and it sparked us for about a week in 2003 and then we lost to Clemson 39-3 and then in 2005 Reggie Ball two weeks after we beat Auburn caught viral meningitis and we got destroyed by VT 51-7…
Auburn is the proverbial paper tiger.
I write stuff From the Rumble Seat.
Every team is different.
I just think a lot of our problems stem from people expecting to lose the big game, which kills you when it is tight in the 4th quarter. Just like people saying they expect us to lose certain games, or to go 9-3, or 8-4. Not saying those people are crazy, or that we are a powerhouse, but if you start off expecting to lose then I think that really hurts your chances of winning. That is why I think if we beat Auburn, then the team will start believing, which will help us out when we get into a close game, which I am sure we will have.
I also think the mentality of the fans rubs off on the players more than we realize. That is why Dabo wants everyone to be “All-in”. Basically, hw knows you have to believe you can win before you can win.
There is something in these Hills!
by Tigerplowboy on Aug 19, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow, looked up 2005-2009 one possession games
Clemson is 10-18 in games decided by one possession since 2005. I can see where the “close game concern” comes from. That would be frustrating to lose so many close games.
I write stuff From the Rumble Seat.
That record is why Dabo is the coach and not TB.
They are preaching toughness and all-in all the time, but we need to prove it on the field. Auburn is the first chance to do that, and if they prove it to themselves, then I think that will make us a much better team, and will make our chances of winning the “toss-up” games a lot better.
There is something in these Hills!
by Tigerplowboy on Aug 19, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree, but since CTBs first year we have learned one absolute – we can win or lose game on our schedule. I know that we can beat every team on the schedule this year, but I do not believe that we will. I try to look at everything objectively, unlike those folks in Columbia. I do think that Dabo is deveoping a tougher team, physically and mentally, which was sorely needed and will help us in the many close games we will have this season.
Unfortunately the fired-upness of Tiger Nation has very little outcome on the game
Other than the advantage of crowd noise leading to maybe a few penalties on a visiting offense of course.
I'm thinking 2 of the 3 as well
winning all 3 just means that we implode against somebody like MD or WF.
SC has Troy the week before our game, not a bye.
by OrangeBritches on Aug 19, 2010 10:59 AM EDT reply actions
you are absolutely correct. They had a bye the week before Clemson last season and
for some reason I though that it worked out that way again this season. I appologize and should have confirmed before posting.
Clemson Sports Analysis and Insight
www.shakinthesouthland.com
I see no reason to think we will beat GT other than perhaps they have downgraded some with the loss of Dwyer and Thomas
They have had our number and we have not really shown an inkling of being able to stop them or any other team running any semblance of option plays.
I certainly agree that their offense will regress to some degree from last year, but I doubt moreso than ours. They still have their key playmaker in Nesbitt, we lost Spiller and Ford. Those two loses will hurt us a lot on ST (field position) and on offense. Our offense feasted on long, explosive plays and a short field last year. We dont have any reason to believe we will have that. GT’s defense may be a bigger question mark. The loss of playmakers and the transition to 3-4 will be tough to overcome this year.
Great work
I have
100 North Texas
100Presbyterian
40% at Auburn
50% UM
40% at UNC
92.5% MD
57.5% GT
50% at BC
90% NC State
40% at FSU
80% at WF
60% South Carolina
Which is exactly 8.0 and 5-3 in conferene.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I'm in agreement with this
I think FF’s was a optimistic view, which I appreciate. I tend to lean to the pessimist side because that is what Clemson has done to me.
I believe Bud’s is realistic and is the standard to which I will hold our success/failure criteria for this season.
Optimistic? That is the first time I've been called that in a while
All joking aside, Bud knows his stuff so you are in good shape if you agree with him. On the other side of things, he predicted Clemson having 8 wins, I said 8.4. 8-9 wins seems pretty realistic, with 8 being the probable number.
Clemson Sports Analysis and Insight
www.shakinthesouthland.com
I didn't mean optimistic with the final number
I guess I meant that you were more optimistic with a few of the percentages than I would’ve been.
Using the percentage method is a great way to look at things, but definitely makes it tough to have high expectations. I’m hoping for a 9-3 season, will feel blah about 8-4, and will be disappointed with 7-5.
Perhaps the RB coach turns pro in fishing?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Hopefully it is a former FSU offensive coordinator in addition.
Clemson Sports Analysis and Insight
www.shakinthesouthland.com
I don't disagree with that
8-4 would be average (based on the percentages), and we shouldn’t come to accept average.
i just don't see us losing to BC
they’re D will likely be outclassed, i know don’t underestimate the spaz’s D, they’ve got a reciever taking reps a the DL and very average secondary at best. LB’s are good though. same goes for their offense they’ve got a good offensive line(who was manhandled in the valley) and a ok rb(who fed off mostly weak defenses) but what else?
by Tigershine88 on Aug 19, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d expect their D to handle Clemson’s offense.
they’ve got a reciever taking reps a the DL
They can’t find a position for the kid. He’s a 3rd stringer and is not relevant to BC discussion.
Secondary will be good not great, and the linebackers are better than good.
You’re focusing too much on last year’s game, which was quite weird anyway, and not on the overall ability of the two teams.
I’d say BC 20 Clemson 14
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Disagree with the secondary
I’d expect their D to handle Clemson’s offense.
see i don’t think they will, probably put close to 30 on them. regardless if they can’t find a position for him or not they’re still pretty weak at the DL and will get exposed even with the LBs trying to cover that defection imo. as far as the secondary they lack athletic ability which if properly taught can be good. last year though they were mediocre. one thing that could play against though is the weather up there on oct 30 which will be a lot colder than what it will be in clemson at that time
by Tigershine88 on Aug 19, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you mean close to 20?
Last year their defense was just about as good as Clemson’s.
I just can’t see why you think you’re much better or why you should be favored on the road…
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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its not about how good i think we are
its more about the problems i think they’re going to run into on defense.
statistically speaking last year they were close but if you look at who they played then it kinda takes away from that.
by Tigershine88 on Aug 19, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
They held almost everyone well below their season averages.
Can you expand on what you mean?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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My opinion
is that Tigershine is underestimating their defense (which is going to be very good) and overestimating our offense. They have a very good defensive line and excellent linebackers (probably around top 5 in the country). You don’t need to have a stellar back 4 if your front 7 is that good.
To be honest, I think Bud was being a little generous by giving us a 50/50 shot at winning in BC. I think they will be favored and would probably put us at 45/55. Our offense will have trouble moving the ball against their D. And although I disrespect Shinskie and think our defense will give their offense fits again, I give them a slight advantage since it is at their place. And since our place kickers stink.
He maybe underestimating their D, but he's right about their line
Their front 4 didn’t light up the opposition last year, they lacked the ability to put pressure on the opposing qbs. They are hoping a couple of guys will contribute to improve in that area. Hence the jockeying of the receiver/DE player/athlete by both position coaches. The two areas of weakness with this squad is at the dline and receiver The secondary lost two starting corners like Clemson D did, but they should be alright (just like the Tigers). The LBs with the return of Herzlick will be as good or better than last year. And like last year they will compensate for the shortcomings of their dline similar to what our dline did for our linebacker core.At the end of the day BC’s D will be it’s usual top 25 self.
Shinskie is the key for this team. If he improves, finds receivers to pass to ( they lost some key players there), and cuts down on his ints, BC should be fine. But all things be equal, these teams are close to being mirror images in situation. Second year in their offensive systems, second year qbs, both inexperienced at receiver, and both with good D’s
Both teams met last year and the result was 25-7. Even with the “weird” weather conditions, both offenses played like crap and had yet to find their identities. Both defenses played well. 50/50 is about right. Clemson maybe better talent-wise to an extent, but BC has always been better at execution & they are always tough in CH. This is a toss up ….
I expect Clemson's wideouts to mess up their hot reads against BC's complex zone defenses and cause at least one interception.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Aug 19, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Heck I just hope they have the where with all to understand what a hot read is,
and actually run a route correctly. BC scares me with their linebackers underneath in passing situations. They are always where they should be, and the open spots are hard to come by. Clemson’s backs and tight ends will have to be on their A game. This game will pit each teams strengths against the other teams weaknesses. Whoever makes the least mistakes will win. Outside of last year, these games have been as close as the GT games (within a fg usually)
I really see it as an ugly, low-scoring tossup.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Aug 20, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I could be wrong about their front 4
I just thought they’d be better this year because they get Albright back and I think Dillon Quinn could be a stud.
I think they will be better too, but they had a serious drop off
from the Brace/ Raji years. However their linebacker depth and quality has compensated for it. If the returning guys along with new blood start to have impact, the defense will be top 15. Again, the situation mirrors Clemson except it’s our linebackers that need to step up (Willard, Hawkins, Christian, Parker and Maye). That occurs then both of these units will move into the top 15. But either way, the offenses will struggle against the strengths of both teams
they did.
but they didn’t play GT or miami last year. i don’t think the stats will show it this year b/c of their schedule but i just don’t see them being as good as they’ve been in the past. jmo could be wrong but we will see.
by Tigershine88 on Aug 20, 2010 8:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I consider SC
ACC country because Clemson dominates USC in so much but when the cocks finally won a game against y’all, it really brought the mouth-breathers out of the wood works.
I write stuff From the Rumble Seat.
Lance Dunbar, RB, North Texas
I might go watch us play N. Texas, just to see if this kid is legit. He ran well last year and apparently made honorable mention All-American by SI. I don’t see any other reason to be specifically interested in the game (other than the general 1st game curiosity appeal).
I think 8 wins is reasonable. We have no reason to be too pessimistic or particularly optimistic, other than the fact that we’re another year removed from the old coaching regime and one year more familiar with Steele’s D, which is proven. KP is probably the wild card factor.
From a purely fan and unscientific perspective, Clemson has traditionally done better with no expectations from the media.
Clemson fans
I have always had respect for you guys! Cj spiller is the man. Its going to be a good game in tally, could decide whos in the acc championship. Good luck tigers
by Johnathan Blackburn on Aug 20, 2010 3:17 AM EDT reply actions
Get Real
You guys have a better chance of rehiring Danny Ford than beating Presbyterian College, our mascot is a mens dress for Christ’s sake. Go BLUE HOSE!
Prediction 3-16
by Kevin Bryant Anderson on Aug 20, 2010 8:35 AM EDT reply actions
you seemed suprised when I told you I thought clemson would go 8-4.
Anyway, a FSU buddy and I have devised a bet where we pick against the spread for all cu and fsu games for the year (Tiebreaker is the winner of the headsup game). loser buys a round of golf. sooooo… we’ll see what happens.
Just so you know...
Our goal is not to finish 2nd in the SEC West.
Safe travels for those of you coming to Auburn.
Auburn Tigers Baseball -- 2010 SEC West Champions
You're all WRONG. Clemson will go UNDEFEATED!!!
As a Clemson fan, I have to say that you’re all wrong and the Clemson will go undefeated on its way to national championship. And I could never admit that I ALMOST PERFECTLY AGREE WITH THE AUTHOR’S ANALYSIS. :-)
At this point I see the Auburn, Miami, & UNC as toss-ups. GT should be a toss-up, but I just gotta think that after the last 3 losses to GT, that Dabo and Steele are so bent on beating GT that they’ve probably been working on it since the Music City Bowl. FSU is basically a toss-up but (if I weren’t an unrealistic Clemson fan) I’d say you gotta give FSU a slight edge.
The funny thing is that there’s not one team on the schedule that Clemson couldn’t reasonably beat. It’s not like Clemson has an Ohio State or an Alabama on the schedule where it would be a stretch to expect Clemson to win. Sadly, people who have followed Clemson have been trained to expect Clemson to choke or blow 2-3 games that they shouldn’t lose. But I have a feeling that Dabo, Napier, and Steele are going to learn from their mistakes and do better next year. I think Clemson will suprise everyone. Seriously, I don’t see Clemson finishing the year unranked. Now I gotta go back to TigerNet for another cup of Kool-Aid.
Florida State is not Alabama or Ohio State, but us winning in Tallahasee this year may be close to one of those stretches to believe.
I think we’ll have a tough time there. I’d love to be pleasantly surprised, though. They shouldn’t expect to win on sheer mystique, however, as we are not afraid of them anymore. They are just going to be a better team this year, I think.
If I had to bet, I'd bet on FSU (ahem... if I weren't a Clemson fan), largely on home field advantage.
I don’t closely follow FSU, but I look at it like this… Last season Clemson beat FSU pretty handily (40-24).. at least by the 4th quarter. That game was over even before McDaniel & Ponder collided in the 4th quarter. Even when the score was close earlier in the game, I never felt like Clemson would lose that game. Clemson’s offense handled FSU’s defense. And Clemson’s defense held FSU in check quite well, including 2 picks.
I actually think that Clemson’s offense (despite the loss of Spiller & Ford) will be about as potent as last year, thanks largely to a more seasoned, improved O-line, and a less predictable offense (since the ball won’t predictably be going to Spiller, Spiller, Spiller, Ford, Ford, and Palmer). But I don’t see FSU’s defense being much better (if at all) in the first year under Stoops. FSU lost their top receiver, but their offense should be similarly potent behind Ponder and a more seasoned O-line. However, Clemson’s defense should be similar to last season, though perhaps a bit better in year-2 under Steele. So I just don’t see much of a swing (if any, let alone 16 points) in FSU’s favor compared to last year. Doak should be worth a few points, but not 16.
This might be the toughest ACC regular-season game for both teams, and will likely decide the Atlantic— either outright or as a spoiler.
I think any amount of coaching
would improve FSUs defense, they have too much speed to stay that bad again. That defense they fielded last year was one of the shittiest I’ve ever seen in a BCS conference.
I think the best FSU’s D is going to be is Top 40 though in their first year of a new scheme.
No he wasnt
but there is great question over whether he was really 100% into it since his son committed suicide, and he had defensive assistants who clearly didn’t try to coach at all.
Yes, there is the question about whether Andrews (and Bowden for that matter) were 100% in it like the old days.
Nobody really knows. We’ll find out. I definitely think that FSU’s defense MIGHT be noticeably better. But I won’t be surprised if it isn’t. When Dabo booted Vic Koenning and his soft “bend—don’t-break” defense, I think many of us were excited to see a more aggressive defense that could get off the field on 3rd down. But I’m not sure that we saw any improvement in year one. (On the other hand, post-Spence, and especially post-UMD-Dabo-Napier-fight, I’d say the offense showed a noticeable improvement.) I expect Steele’s crew to do better in year 2. Similarly, I’m not sure (heart in it or not) that we’ll see any improvement in FSU’s defense in year one of Stoops. (Granted VK’s defenses were pretty good, and Mickey’s defenses for the last few years were not.) I just think FSU’s defense is too hard to predict. Oh well… I can’t wait to find out the answer in a couple weeks!
Simulated Season
While summing up win percentages is maybe better than just picking wins and losses, I think you could be even more informative.
I did a Monte Carlo simulation for the season based on your win probabilities. Basically, for each game on the schedule, I picked a random number between 0 and 1. If that number is less than the percentage you listed, the game is a win and if it is more than the number you picked, the game is a loss. Doing this gives a number of wins for a simulated season. I then did that 100,000 times to get a bunch of possible wins in a season. For example, out of those 100,000 seasons, Clemson won 12 games 153 times. This gives us a basic probability distribution of season wins based on the probability that you picked for each game.
Average Clemson Wins: 8.8
1-3 Wins: Basically 0
4 Wins: 0.11%
5 Wins: 0.84%
6 Wins: 3.87%
7 Wins: 11.99%
8 Wins: 23.10%
9 Wins: 28.46%
10 Wins: 21.40%
11 Wins: 8.72%
12 Wins: 1.53%
These values are likely biased upwards since people tend to over estimate probabilities (North Texas is probably more like 90% chance), but this is still probably better aligned with what you really expect than just the sum of win percentages. It also gives us better insights, such as that an 8 win season is basically as likely as a 10 win season, or that the probability that Clemson wins at least 8 games is 83.21%.
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